PERT Estimation Technique Explained with Examples

Introduction:

Before the commencement of any project activity, accurate and meaningful time estimates are essential.

Project teams must come up with quality and accurate estimation techniques to ensure successful project execution. One such proven method is the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT).

In this article, we’ll delve into PERT, complete with examples, to give you a clear understanding of what it entails.

What is PERT?

PERT, fully known as the Program Evaluation and Review Technique, was created by the US Navy in the 1950s.

Initially developed for a Ballistic Missile project involving thousands of contractors, PERT has since been used in many large projects. It is a tool used to handle big projects or programs that entail a series of activities.

PERT helps analyze project activities, determine their sequential arrangement, and work out the required time to complete all tasks. The critical path, often known as PERT analysis, plays a crucial role in this methodology.

PERT and Project Management

PERT is particularly useful for research projects or programs that have not yet been implemented. When historical data is lacking, PERT steps in to provide deadlines for every task involved in a project. Here’s why PERT is valuable:

Handling the Unknown: When a project is being done for the first time, it’s challenging to determine the time for completion. PERT helps estimate the duration even in such cases.

Sequencing Activities: PERT guides teams on the sequence of all activities involved. It ensures that tasks are executed in the right order.

Budgeting and Resource Planning: By estimating the project’s duration, PERT helps ascertain the need for financial and human resources.

PERT Formula and Example:

The PERT formula is (O + (4 × M) + P) ÷ 6

Suppose we’re estimating the time for a software development task:

Optimistic Time: 2 days

Most Likely Time: 3 days

Pessimistic Time: 5 days

PERT Estimate = (2 + 4 times 3 + 5) ÷ 6 = 3.33

Therefore, the PERT estimate for this activity is approximately 3.33 days.

Conclusion:

PERT provides a structured approach to estimating project timelines, especially when dealing with unknowns. By analyzing activities and creating a critical path, project teams can make informed decisions and achieve successful project outcomes.

Remember, accurate estimation is the foundation for effective project planning and execution!

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